Hi all,
For those that read my previous morning post, I mentioned that I had gone short EUR/JPY.
Well, I have closed this now for a +42 pips profit, not bad for a few mins of work. However, in hindsight, I should have kept the trade going as the market has dropped an additional 30 points as I write and still falling. Oh well, a profit is a profit! My initial trade was opened at 16150 with a target of 16010… unfortunately, I chickened out from holding this all the way..
I just want to go through some of my analysis for the trade and exit so people can comment. Trading is always a learning game so if I can help someone and someone can help me then we all benefit.
Firstly, the analysis… if you look at the daily chart of the EUR/JPY, you see that the market is clearly in a downtrend. If you then delve a bit deeper (4 hour charts) you can see that the market has fallen from a top of around 16535 to a low of 15995. If you draw a Fibonacci retracement you can see that the market bounced up and hit the 50% mark and has since fallen.
Now, delving a little furthermore, the 15 mins charts. At approximately 7am today, the maket made a short term bottom 16126, and has retraced up to 16170. Funnily enough, if you take the 15 min high (prior to the drop) 16170 is 50% Fibonacci retracement again!! This was my reason for entry, I saw that the markets were behaving as I would like them to which gave me confidence in the trade. I watched for a bit and it seemed that the market wanted to head lower so I put in my trade.
Shortly afterwards, the market dropped. I take round number prices as resistance so when it hit 16100, it floated a bit. I was thinking that it may bounced up from here again and didn’t want to take the risk so close out.
However, shortly after a mini bounce above 16100, it went straight down again through this level. I looks like it may reach my intended target of 16010 but I’ll await another safer entry.
Thing is, never beat yourself up over missed opportunities. If you miss it, there are opportunities every day in the markets… just wait for the next one!
I enclose a picture showing my entry and exit.

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